Vietnam economic outlook 2012 pdf

Government spending and debt remained in check and bank capital rules were strengthened. Over the past decade, vietnam has emerged as southeast asias most intriguing economic story. Taking stock an update on vietnam s recent economic developments vietnam s rank in the world banks doing business improved markedly to 68th in 2017 from. Standard chartered expects vietnam to remain the fastestgrowing asean economy in 2018 hanoi, 5 october 2018 standard chartered bank continues to expect vietnam s robust gdp growth of 7. Koreaninvested firms in vietnam in 2016 contributed almost a of the total value of vietnam s exports. Vietnam s economy is strong, as a result of strong momentum of vietnam s fundamental growth drivers domestic demand and exportoriented manufacturing.

Over that period, the economy has experienced rapid growth. Despite rising trade tensions and volatility in emerging economies throughout 2018, vietnams economy saw broadbased growth and low inflation. Doubledigit manufacturing growth boosted industry, while a surge in visitor arrivals, a healthy labor market and mild price pressures propelled the services sector. By making use of a panel dataset that covers 61 provinces of vietnam over the period 1997 to 2006, this paper examines the link between financial development and economic growth. Having a strong understanding of the differences between the asean markets is. Resiliency amid emerging market uncertainty introduction vietnam s expansion has charged ahead despite the recent financial and trade turmoil inflicting pain across southeast asias emerging markets. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the united states and better policies in the euro area. Foreword we all know there is a huge need for infrastructure spending in asean and other emerging markets, while spending remains constrained and lags behind the demand for new infrastructure. This page has economic forecasts for vietnam including a longterm outlook for the next decades, plus mediumterm expectations for the next four quarters and shortterm market predictions for the next release affecting the vietnam economy. Vietnam economy, politics and gdp growth summary the. Vietnam p 11 south africa p 24 myanmar p 12 saudi arabia p 25 cambodia p uae p 26 india p 14 australia p 27.

Vietnams economy would take 14rather than 10years to double in size. Standard chartered expects vietnam to remain the fastest. China is the only asian economy that has grown faster since 2000. Vietnam joined the wto in january 2007 and concluded several free trade agreements in 201516, including the eu vietnam free trade agreement which the eu has not yet ratified, the korean free trade agreement, and the eurasian economic union free trade agreement. Standard chartered forecasts vietnam s gdp growth at 6. Oecd ilibrary oecd economic outlook, volume 2012 issue 1. Vietnams development over the past 30 years has been remarkable.

Vietnam is a densely populated developing country that has been transitioning since 1986 from the rigidities of a centrally planned, highly agrarian economy to a more industrial and market based economy, and it has raised incomes substantially. The transition of vietnams model of economic growth do phu tran tinh, ph. Economic development in vietnam during the second half of. In the mediumterm, vietnam s economic outlook is positive, despite signs of cyclical moderation in growth. Vietnam economic outlook 2012 vietcombank securities 2011. The united states is recognized as vietnams largest single export market, although the european union as a whole registered similar trade numbers in 2012. Vietnam continues to ride the wave of foreign investment and lowcost manufacturing. The productivity challenge february 2012 vietnam s economy has come an extraordinarily long way in a short time. After a severe drop below one percent in 2015, vietnams inflation seems to have stabilized. Economic outlook for southeast asia, china and india 2018 fostering growth through digitalisation the economic outlook for southeast asia, china and india is a biannual publication on regional economic growth, development and regional integration in emerging asia. Vietnams manufacturing sector continues to see strong inflows of foreign direct. These quickresponse articles analyse key events in terms of how we expect them to affect our political and economic forecast, and are closely tied to the structure of our country report service. Vietnam s economy would take 14rather than 10years to double in size. The april 2012 issue of the world economic outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011.

Investment from both the government and multinational. The vietnam economic policy conveys a clear message to the business community, international organizations. Vietnam will remain one of the fastestgrowing economies in the asiapacific region in the medium term, driven by its external sector. In addition, the country is committed to continuing its global economic integration.

The african economic outlook was prepared by a consortium of four teams from the african development bank afdb, the oecd development centre, the united nations development programme undp and the united nations economic commission for africa uneca. The asian development outlook analyzes economic and development issues in developing countries in asia. Some findings of vietnams economic situation in the relationship with china. As a result, viet nam has achieved an impressive level of.

Outlook after experiencing accelerated growth of 7. Download historical data for 20 million indicators using your browser. The analysis and projections contained in the world economic outlook are integral elements of the imfs surveil. Vietnam will remain one of the fastestgrowing economies in the asiapacific region over the medium term. However, outlook based on the us yield curve2 suggests an economic downturn. Vietnams economy shows fundamental strength, with stable. Hereafter, we refer to this model as the vnet for vietnam education and training model. Economic analysis the group of emerging countries which compose the eagles and the nest our watch list of countries which could eventually become an eagle is expected to create more than two thirds of total global growth in. The political economy of development in china and vietnam. Slower momentum introduction the southeast asia economy has enjoyed a solid run in the last two years with gdp growth of 5. Whats more, vietnam outstripped chinese gdp growth for the first time in nearly. In januaryafebruary, growth in industrial production, retail sales, tourist arrivals and exports moderated from q4.

Macro outlook 2012 economic indicators and analysis. The economic context of vietnam economic indicators for the latest forecasts on the economic impacts caused by the coronavirus pandemic, please consult the oecd economic outlook interim report coronavirus. However remittances should remain stable and at high levels. Home center vietnam 2006 14 home appliance, electronics specialty store 5. Taking vietnams economy to the next level february 2012 article. Fpt retail fpt shop vietnam 2012 473 electronics specialty store studio by fpt chain vietnam 2012 authorised apple products store 3. The government will prioritise increasing foreign direct investment and. Its robust trade ties are likely to support exportdriven growth in the medium term. Pdf some findings of vietnams economic situation in the. The outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment.

Nov 26, 2019 in 2018, the average inflation rate in vietnam amounted to 3. But with growth still above potential in most dm economies, we look for continued labor market tightening, gradually rising core in. Mar 29, 2011 citigroup economist willem buiter predicts vietnam is one of the 11 countries likely to stand out in terms of a high growth rate and investment attraction over the next 40 years, and according to the economist intelligence unit, vietnam s economic outlook for 2011 through to 2014 is forecast to be strong. Vietnams transition to a market economy has transformed the country and the lives of its people. Specifically, through this agreement, vietnam will gain access to significant markets including canada, mexico and european countries with whom it currently does not have any trade relations.

Vietnam is a member of asiapacific economic cooperation, association of southeast asian nations and the world trade organization. Taking stock an update on vietnams recent economic developments. Between 2002 and 2018, more than 45 million people were lifted out of. A political economy of economic restructuring in vietnam. Following a banner year in 2017 when real gdp growth registered at a sixyear high of 6. In the context of the 2012 article iv consultation with vietnam, the following. Sep, 2012 in july the state bank of vietnam the countrys central bank said that 8. Gdpe0648icr vietnam power market outlook to 2030 sample. The country started to open up to foreign investment and trade. But today vietnam s economy faces complex challenges that require a transition to a productivitydriven growth trajectory.

Standard chartered forecasts vietnams gdp growth at 6. In the first quarter of 2012, vietnams gross domestic product gdp. January 09, 2019 vietnam macro economic overview 4q2018 and outlook 2019 stable macro, sustainable growth gdp. Koreaninvested firms tend to be exportoriented and thus contribute significantly to vietnam s trade balance. Key indicators the key indicators for asia and the pacific publication presents data regarding the economic, financial, social, and environmental situations in a broad range of countries across the region. For further information see box a2 in the april 2004 world economic outlook, box 1. The economy performed better than expected in the third quarter according to recent data, with both the industrial and services sectors picking up speed. The economy of vietnam is a socialistoriented market economy, which is the 44thlargest in the world as measured by nominal gross domestic product gdp and 32ndlargest in the world as measured by purchasing power parity ppp. Financial development and economic growth in vietnam. As of 2012, vietnam had only one refinery, the dung quat refinery, but a.

Oda will decline as the world bank reduces aid given vietnam s confirmed status as a middle income country. Today, it is well integrated on global markets, has enjoyed robust growth, and has seen remarkable poverty reduction. Vietnam economy gdp, inflation, cpi and interest rate. Vietnam economic outlook report the economist intelligence unit. In 1986, vietnam launched doi moi, a homegrown, political and economic renewal campaign that marked the beginning of its transition from a centrally.

Taking stock an update on vietnams recent economic developments vietnams rank in the world banks doing business improved markedly to 68th in 2017 from. Not because it is the regions largest economy a title that belongs to indonesia or its fastest growing a position that moves between myanmar, cambodia, and laos. Taking vietnams economy to the next level mckinsey. Policymakers can compare economic policies across a range of countries to determine which bring the greatest economic benefits. However, growing trade tensions between the united states and china, if escalated further, could slow global trade and put the brakes on vietnam s economic growth. In our latest world in 2050 report we present economic growth projections for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 84% of global gdp. This is the highest ratio amongst any of the asean states, even if. African economic outlook 2012 african development bank.

During the period 200011, thanks to high economic growth, viet nam has achieved. Asian development outlook 2019 strengthening disaster resilience asian development outlook 2019 strengthening disaster resilience the annual asian development outlook, now in its 30th year, analyzes economic performance in the past year and forecasts performance in the next 2 years for the 45 economies in asia and the pacific that make up. Asean business outlook survey 2018 3 c m y cm my cy cmy k 210x297170503fa. We use vnet to forecast changes in the vietnamese economy between 2010 and 2020. Asean gdp, share in global gdp and gdpcapita source of information this information was extracted from the imfs database on world economic outlook. In particular, planning for the countrys future workforce. The future of transpacific partnership tpp is uncertain, but vietnam s export outlook is still positive having concluding bilateral trade agreements with south korea and the european union. Jul 16, 2019 five charts explain vietnams economic outlook. The disruption caused by the novel coronavirus in the first half of 2020 will not do lasting harm to exportoriented industries. The decline in the period from 2008 2011 slow recovery during 20122015 of fditogdp and. Manufacturing drives vietnam closer to asian tiger status vietnam s economy grew 7. As exports moderate in line with deceleration in global demand see box 1, real growth is projected to ease to 7 percent in 2019. Researchers can use the economic outlook report to assess growth prospects for vietnam in the short, medium and long term.

The economy of vietnam is a socialistoriented market economy, which is the 44thlargest in. Vietnam joined the world trade organization in 2007, and it is also. Once a nation ravaged by war, vietnams economy now flourishes year over year, with an annual growth of more than 5 percent since 2012. From 2015 2016, some korean investment was made in anticipation of vietnam s accession to. Economy economic indicators for viet nam the spread of covid19 and the resulting abrupt global slowdown will slash growth to 4. Lao peoples democratic republic lao economic monitor fy1516 challenges in promoting more inclusive growth and shared prosperity may 2016. Vietnam has a moderate level of economic risk, a high level of political risk, and a very high level of financial system risk.

As we shall show in this paper, the process of vietnams economic development can be understood not only in terms of the broad sweep of economic growth, but also in terms of the structural composition of this growth. As credit growth has slowed, vulnerabilities in the financial sector. Despite weak global demand, asian development outlook 2012 expects that developing asia will largely maintain its growth momentum in the next couple of years, in an environment of easing inflation for most regional economies, although policy makers must be alert to further oilprice spikes arising from threats of oil supply disruptions. The government will also pursue economic liberalisation over the next few years. We project the world economy to grow at an average of just over 3% per annum in the period 2014. With 189 member countries, staff from more than 170 countries, and offices in over locations, the world bank group is a unique global partnership. Retail in vietnam navigating the digital retail landscape. The economic context of vietnam economic and political. In 2018, vietnam s gross domestic product gdp amounted to around 241. Hapro hapro mart vietnam 2006 6 supermarket hapro food 2004 4 grocery store 4. Resilient growth outlook although asean as a group has made some impressive progress, variations remain between individual markets, due to their different economic lifecycles. The transition of vietnams model of economic growth.

The economy has lost momentum so far this year according to the most recent data, due to the fallout from covid19. Recent developments and outlook 1 migration and remittance trends and outlook 1. Article pdf 170kb taking vietnams economy to the next level. It will be one of the main beneficiaries of the ongoing uschina trade war as relocation out of china accelerates.